Business Blogs

The Bermuda Triangle Of Economics

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
Excerpted from Jacob Steen's Chronicle blog at Tradingfloor.com, The mystique of the Bermuda Triangle has caught the imagination and interest of generations. In much the same way it has also caught my attention and I feel that now there is a Bermuda Triangle of economics - a space where everything tends to disappear without radar contact, a black hole in which rationality and science is replaced by hope, superstition and nonsense pundits like myself pretending to understand the real drivers of the economy. The Bermuda Triangle in real life runs from Bermuda to Puerto Rico to Miami. The economic one runs from high stock market valuations to high unemployment to low growth/productivity. Just like the real Bermuda Triangle, in the Bermuda Triangle of economics there is plenty of scientific evidence that can explain most, if not everything, of what is going on. But that does not suit Hollywood, sorry,
the US Federal Reserve. Neither does it suit mainstream banking analysis or the media in dealing with reality and facts: the mystique simply sells better! After all, there is a reason why people leave science education for PhDs in apps and virtual reality. There is a myth that the sunken Atlantis could be in the middle of this triangle. It has been renamed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to make it suit the black hole's main premise of ensuring there is a fancy name for what is essentially the same economic recipe: print and spend money, then wait and pray for better weather. The economic Bermuda Triangle, or EBT, is getting harder and harder to justify - if for nothing else because the constant reminders of crisis keep us all defensive and non-committed to investing beyond the next quarter. We all naively think we can exit the "risk-on" trade before...(Read Full Article)

 

How technology redefines norms

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Felix Salmon >> 
Jeff Jarvis reprints the clip above, in an article dismissing the privacy concerns surrounding Google Glass.

   

Class of 2013: The Most Indebted Ever

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
70% of graduates had at least some debt according to the latest poll from Fidelity Investments but as the Wall Street Journal reports the average student-loan debt for a borrower who received a bachelor's degree in 2013 is $30,000 - an all-time record. With $986 billion of outstanding student loan debt (up 50% from Q1 2009) and unemployment rates running at or near all-time highs for the 16-24 year old cohort in this nation, it is little surprise that delinquencies are surging. The unemployment rate among graduates is 7.1% (which is considerably worse than it looks given that many are stuck in low-paid jobs) but it is those who don't complete college that face the greatest burden - the median annual income of a non-completer was $25,000 (compared to $33,900 for a degree holder), less than the average student loan debt. As the WSJ notes though, the 2013
class is unlikely to hold the 'most indebted class ever' title for long as 2014 enrollments and tuition costs look set to continue the 20 year trend...     Chart: Wall Street Journal
    
...(Read Full Article)

   

Guest Post: Why Bonds Aren't Dead & The Dollar Will Get Weaker

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,
There have been quite a few bold predictions, since the beginning of the year, that the dollar was set to soar and that the great "bond bull market" was dead.  The primary thesis behind these views was that the economy was set to strengthen and inflation would begin to seep its way back into the system.  Furthermore, the "Great Rotation" of bonds into stocks, on the back of said economic strength, would push interest rates substantially higher.   While I have no doubt that at some point down the road that inflation will become an issue, interest rates will rise and the dollar will strengthen - it just won't be anytime soon.  A wave of "disinflation" is currently engulfing the globe as the Eurozone economy slips back into recession, China is slowing down and the U.S. is grinding into much slower
rates of growth.  Even Japan, despite their best efforts through a massive QE program, cannot seem to break the back of the deflationary pressures on their economy.  This is a problem that has yet to be recognized by the financial markets. The recent inflation reports (both the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes) show deflationary forces at work.  Wages continue to wane, economic production is stalling and price pressures are falling.  More importantly, there are downward pressures on the most economically sensitive commodities such as oil, copper and lumber all indicating weaker levels of economic output.  The battle against deflationary economic pressures has been what the Federal Reserve has been forced to fight since the financial crisis.  The problem has been that, much like "Humpty-Dumpty", the broken financial transmission system, as represented by the velocity of money, can't be put back together again. The weak level of...(Read Full Article)

   

The Quiet Triumph Of Oil And Gas In Obama’s Policies

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter It was announced Friday afternoon, when no one was supposed to pay attention: after years of controversy, heated rhetoric, intense lobbying, and stiff opposition from some unlikely bedfellows, with multinational industrial and chemical companies weighing down one side of the bed, and environmentalists tossing and turning on the other, the Obama Administration decided in favor of the US oil and gas industry. With geopolitical ramifications. The Department of Energy “conditionally authorized” Freeport LNG Expansion LP and FLNG Liquefaction LCC (Freeport) to export domestically produced liquefied natural gas to countries with which the US does not have Free Trade Agreements (PDF, 132 pages). Already allowed are exports to the 20 countries with FTAs – most of them in the Americas, but also Australia, Korea, Singapore, Israel, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, and Morocco. But exports to the remaining 180 or so countries have to
jump through some hoops. So Freeport’s LNG Terminal on Quintana Island, Texas, is now authorized to export 1.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG for 20 years to those non-FTA countries. Freeport joins Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, with an export capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. Freeport’s and Cheniere’s combined capacity would amount to 5.2% of US production (estimated at 69.3 Bcf/d in 2013). Other companies are cooling their heels in line at the DOE, which would, as it said, “process the applications currently pending on a case-by-case basis.” At snail’s pace. The administrations sole concession to environmentalists. “DOE has had the remaining applications on its desk for months and should ensure that these applications are approved without any further delay,” groused Erik Milito, of the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association representing over 500 oil and gas companies. Hurdles remain. DOE approval...(Read Full Article)

   

Visualizing The Silver Squeeze

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
Despite 'crashes' in the market, the demand for physical silver continues to rise. "Buyers are already outpacing sellers by a stunning 50-to-1 ratio. We are seeing the beginning of shortages; but this will only accelerate if Western governments continue with this raid on paper gold and silver."     The Silver Squeeze – An infographic by the team at The Silver Squeeze Free Infographic
    

   

"Boldly They Rode And Well", Or Why Japan Is Not America

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Zero Hedge >> 
Submitted by Daniel Cloud Boldly They Rode And Well I believe that Shinzo Abe has made a very serious strategic miscalculation. I used to be confused in much the same way he now seems to be, but I was cured of my confusion by thinking about Chinese inflation. For a long time, I was puzzled by the fact that America’s endless multi-stage QE program seemed to have no effect on measured inflation, on the CPI and the PPI. But then I realized that by only looking at the United States and their three hundred million-plus people, I was missing the big picture, missing the most important part of its aggregate impact on the Earth’s seven billion inhabitants. QE may never have much of an effect on the inflation rate in the fifty states of the United States of America, because it is workers in the developing world, and in
particular, in China, who are the marginal hires in our still-globalizing, still-offshoring world economy. There is no distinct American economy, now, there is no Chinese economy, there is only the world economy, and the Fed makes policy for large parts of it. China has the kinds of structural rigidities in its labor, goods, information, and asset markets that make inflationary psychology very probable. It already had an ongoing and stubborn problem with inflation before QE started, so the required psychology already existed. And, perhaps most importantly, much of the money the Fed is printing doesn’t actually end up in the United States. It ends up being added to the reserves, and therefore the domestic money supply, of countries like China, who want to keep their currencies pegged, or quasi-pegged, to the dollar. Why? Simply letting their currency appreciate would do to the Chinese what it did to Japan in...(Read Full Article)

   

New Research in Economics: Self-interest vs. Greed and the Limitations of the Invisible Hand

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Economist's View >> 
This is from Matt Clements, Associate Professor and Chair of the Economics Department at St. Edward’s University: Dear Professor Thoma, Allow me to add to the flood of responses you have no doubt received to your offer to help publicize...

   

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 770 Institutions

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Calculated Risk >> 
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 17, 2013.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:
As anticipated, the OCC released its enforcement action activity through mid-April 2013 this Friday. What we did not anticipate was an early week failed-bank closure of another Capitol Bancorp's banking subsidiaries after two were closed last Friday. Along with the failure, there were two other removals and two additions to the Unofficial Problem List this week. After changes, the list has 770 institutions with assets of $284.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 928 institutions with assets of $361.9 billion.

The OCC terminated actions against Liberty Savings Bank, F.S.B., Wilmington, OH ($552 million) and First Federal Community Bank, Paris, TX ($344 million); and issued actions against Mid-Southern Savings Bank, FSB,
Salem, IN ($218 million) and Midwest Federal Savings and Loan Association of St Joseph, Saint Joseph, MO ($35 million Ticker: SJBA).

In a rare Tuesday closing, the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions shuttered Central Arizona Bank, Scottsdale, AZ ($33 million Ticker: CBCRQ). The state banking department was prevented from closing the bank last Friday because of a legal challenge by Capitol Bancorp. By Tuesday, the state banking department was able to prevail, in part, because the bank's Tier 1 leverage ratio had apparently fallen much lower than the 2.13 percent reported in the bank's March 2013 Call Report. Meanwhile in Nevada, the Nevada Department of Business and Industry's Financial Institutions Division was prevented from closing 1st Commerce Bank, North Las Vegas ($24 million) through another legal action by Capitol Bancorp. Reportedly, a preliminary hearing on the injunction stopping the closing will be held...(Read Full Article)

   

Bernanke: Economic Prospects for the Long Run

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Economist's View >> 
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is an optimist when it comes to our long-run economic prospects (i.e. he does not endorse the notion that productivity is slowing). I'm with him. (This is a graduation speech Bernanke gave at Bard College at...

   

Protests in Italy Against New Coalition; How Long Will Coalition Last?

E-mail

( 0 Votes ) Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis >> 
The new coalition government in Italy is off to such a rocky start, it's hard to say there ever was a honeymoon.

People want more jobs. Instead, the price for a coalition by former Prime Minister Mario Silvio Berlusconi was a rollback in property taxes.

Here is the result: Thousands rally in Rome against cuts.
Thousands of protesters, led by trade unionists, have rallied in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government. Wielding red flags and placards, they urged the centre-left Prime Minister, Enrico Letta, to scrap austerity measures and focus on job creation.

Public trust in his fragile coalition with the centre-right is dropping, opinion polls suggest. The country is experiencing its longest recession in more than 40 years. National debt is now about 127% of annual economic output, second only to Greece in the eurozone.

National
debt is now about 127% of annual economic output, second only to Greece in the eurozone. Unemployment is at a record high of 11.5% - 38% for the under-25s.

Before taking office, Mr Letta vowed to make job creation his priority, but critics are unhappy that he has focused on property tax reform.

Soon after being appointed, Mr Letta met other eurozone leaders to convey growing public unrest over austerity measures in Italy. But the new prime minister has to maintain a delicate balance between the policies of his own supporters and those of the centre-right, led by Mr Berlusconi. Protest Pictures From Reuters, BBC





How Long Will Coalition Last?

Inquiring minds are wondering how long this rocky coalition can last. There is no definitive answer but there are a some general rules.

Long enough...(Read Full Article)

   

Page 3 of 28

Have the Business Blogs Headlines emailed to you daily

Enter your email address: